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Gendrim vs AC Douane — Premier League 2020

Gendrim
Gendrim
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Douane
AC Douane
A. Yatma 90'
1/4/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gendrim29%
×Draw29%
AC Douane42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gendrim
0.94
AC Douane
1.21

AC Douane creates 29% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gendrim
0.89
AC Douane
1.36

allows per match

Gendrim
1.06
AC Douane
0.98

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par
AC Douane+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

AC Douane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw
58%
Gendrim or AC Douane
71%
Draw or AC Douane
71%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+
10%
AC Douane wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals
61%
Gendrim 2+ goals
24%
Gendrim 3+ goals
7%
AC Douane 1+ goals
70%
AC Douane 2+ goals
34%
AC Douane 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)
40%
AC Douane (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

AC Douane away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + AC Douane defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

AC Douane attack 1.36 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gendrim scores more
29%
level
29%
AC Douane scores more
42%

AC Douane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
90'
A. Yatma

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gendrim 0–1 AC Douane

AC Douane beat Gendrim 1-0 in Premier League on January 4, 2026.

Goals: A. Yatma (90').