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AC Douane vs Gendrim — Premier League 2020

AC Douane
AC Douane
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gendrim
Gendrim
3/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

AC Douane48%
×Draw29%
Gendrim23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Douane
1.29
Gendrim
0.80

AC Douane creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 54 away

creates per match

AC Douane
1.53
Gendrim
0.76

allows per match

AC Douane
0.84
Gendrim
1.04

finishing

AC Douane+0.00on par
Gendrim+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Douane ↓

Gendrim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

AC Douane or draw
77%
AC Douane or Gendrim
71%
Draw or Gendrim
52%

Winning margin

AC Douane wins by 2+
22%
Gendrim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AC Douane 1+ goals
72%
AC Douane 2+ goals
37%
AC Douane 3+ goals
14%
Gendrim 1+ goals
55%
Gendrim 2+ goals
19%
Gendrim 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AC Douane (draw refunded)
67%
Gendrim (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Douane at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Gendrim away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Douane attack 1.53 + Gendrim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gendrim attack 0.76 + AC Douane defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Douane scores more
48%
level
29%
Gendrim scores more
23%

AC Douane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: AC Douane 1–0 Gendrim

AC Douane beat Gendrim 1-0 in Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.