Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5–0 Eskişehirspor

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eskişehirspor

8/26/2018

1. Lig · Round 3Osmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.59%

×Draw22%

Eskişehirspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.Expected goals in this matchEskişehirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.02

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.94

Eskişehirspor

1.02

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 90% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

1.36

creates per match

0.96

1.07

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.36

Eskişehirspor

0.96

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.07

Eskişehirspor

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Eskişehirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw

81%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Eskişehirspor

78%

Draw or Eskişehirspor

41%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

35%

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

86%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

58%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

30%

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

64%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

27%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

75%

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Eskişehirspor away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.36 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eskişehirspor attack 0.96 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

59%

level

22%

Eskişehirspor scores more

19%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff