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Eskişehirspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2/2/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 20Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eskişehirspor29%
×Draw26%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskişehirspor
1.14
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.50

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

creates per match

Eskişehirspor
1.02
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.26

allows per match

Eskişehirspor
1.73
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.25

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par
Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw
55%
Eskişehirspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
74%
Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
71%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
11%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
68%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
32%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
11%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
78%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
39%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 1.02 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more
29%
level
26%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
45%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Eskişehirspor 3–2 Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Eskişehirspor beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3-2 in 1. Lig on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.