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Geita Gold vs Azam — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Geita Gold
Geita Gold
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Azam
Azam
4/29/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 20Nyamagana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold30%
×Draw30%
Azam41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geita Gold
0.95
Azam
1.17

Azam creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Geita Gold
1.09
Azam
1.29

allows per match

Geita Gold
1.04
Azam
0.80

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par
Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Azam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw
59%
Geita Gold or Azam
70%
Draw or Azam
70%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+
11%
Azam wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals
61%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
25%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
7%
Azam 1+ goals
69%
Azam 2+ goals
33%
Azam 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)
42%
Azam (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Azam away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Azam defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Azam attack 1.29 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Geita Gold scores more
30%
level
30%
Azam scores more
41%

Azam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geita Gold vs Azam

Geita Gold and Azam drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 29, 2022.

The match was played at Nyamagana Stadium in Mwanza.