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Azam vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Azam
Azam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
I. S. Nado 84'
G. Sillah 44'
T. Seif Kiakala 40'
2/16/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 15Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Azam61%
×Draw24%
Geita Gold15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.69
Geita Gold
0.71

Azam creates 138% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

creates per match

Azam
1.98
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Azam
0.61
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Azam or draw
85%
Azam or Geita Gold
76%
Draw or Geita Gold
39%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
34%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
82%
Azam 2+ goals
50%
Azam 3+ goals
24%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
51%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
16%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
80%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.98 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Azam defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Azam scores more
61%
level
24%
Geita Gold scores more
15%

Azam at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
T. Seif Kiakala
44'
G. Sillah
84'
I. S. Nado↳ F. Salum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azam vs Geita Gold

Azam beat Geita Gold 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 16, 2024.

Goals: T. Seif Kiakala (40'), G. Sillah (44'), I. S. Nado (84').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.