Geesdorf 1–1 Bayern Hof: Result & Stats

Geesdorf

FT

1 – 1

Bayern Hof

7/16/2022

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1Metallbau Herold Sportstätte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geesdorf21%

×Draw20%

Bayern Hof59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeesdorfExpected goals in this matchBayern Hof

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.31

Geesdorf

1.32

Bayern Hof

2.31

Bayern Hof creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

1.00

creates per match

1.49

3.12

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Geesdorf

1.00

Bayern Hof

1.49

allows per match

Geesdorf

3.12

Bayern Hof

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geesdorf+0.00on par

Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geesdorf ↓

Bayern Hof →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Geesdorf or draw

41%

Geesdorf or Bayern Hof

80%

Draw or Bayern Hof

79%

Winning margin

Geesdorf wins by 2+

9%

Bayern Hof wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Geesdorf 1+ goals

73%

Geesdorf 2+ goals

38%

Geesdorf 3+ goals

15%

Bayern Hof 1+ goals

90%

Bayern Hof 2+ goals

67%

Bayern Hof 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Geesdorf (draw refunded)

26%

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geesdorf at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.64 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geesdorf attack 1.00 + Bayern Hof defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bayern Hof attack 1.49 + Geesdorf defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Geesdorf scores more

21%

level

20%

Bayern Hof scores more

59%

Bayern Hof at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff