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Bayern Hof vs Geesdorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geesdorf
Geesdorf
H. Durek 74'
M. Schubert 63'
F. Krantz 47'
N. Schmidt 7'
11/5/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18Städtisches Stadion Grüne Au

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bayern Hof71%
×Draw17%
Geesdorf13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayern Hof
2.58
Geesdorf
1.01

Bayern Hof creates 155% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bayern Hof
1.44
Geesdorf
0.59

allows per match

Bayern Hof
1.43
Geesdorf
3.71

finishing

Bayern Hof+0.00on par
Geesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern Hof ↓

Geesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bayern Hof or draw
87%
Bayern Hof or Geesdorf
83%
Draw or Geesdorf
29%

Winning margin

Bayern Hof wins by 2+
49%
Geesdorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bayern Hof 1+ goals
92%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
72%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
47%
Geesdorf 1+ goals
64%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
27%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
85%
Geesdorf (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern Hof at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Geesdorf away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern Hof attack 1.44 + Geesdorf defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.58

Geesdorf attack 0.59 + Bayern Hof defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bayern Hof scores more
71%
level
17%
Geesdorf scores more
13%

Bayern Hof at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bayern Hof will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
N. Schmidt
47'
F. Krantz
63'
M. Schubert
74'
H. Durek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Bayern Hof 4–0 Geesdorf

Bayern Hof beat Geesdorf 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on November 5, 2022.

Goals: N. Schmidt (7'), F. Krantz (47'), M. Schubert (63'), H. Durek (74').

The match was played at Städtisches Stadion Grüne Au in Hof.