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Gebenbach vs Eintracht Münchberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
J. Schwindl 76'
J. Golla 49'
D. Haller 19' (pen)
10/3/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 14Sportgelände Gebenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gebenbach61%
×Draw19%
Eintracht Münchberg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
2.40
Eintracht Münchberg
1.31

Gebenbach creates 83% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Eintracht Münchberg
0.94

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Eintracht Münchberg
2.71

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
80%
Gebenbach or Eintracht Münchberg
81%
Draw or Eintracht Münchberg
39%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
39%
Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
91%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
69%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
42%
Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
73%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
38%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
75%
Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.40

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Gebenbach scores more
61%
level
19%
Eintracht Münchberg scores more
20%

Gebenbach at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
D. HallerPenalty
49'
J. Golla
76'
J. Schwindl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Gebenbach 3–0 Eintracht Münchberg

Gebenbach beat Eintracht Münchberg 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 3, 2024.

Goals: D. Haller (19' pen), J. Golla (49'), J. Schwindl (76').

The match was played at Sportgelände Gebenbach in Gebenbach.