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Eintracht Münchberg vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
T. Frank 90+3' (pen)
J. Huttemann 58'
F. Seifert 45+6'
D. Vidovic 71'
L. Kipry 11'
4/26/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg22%
×Draw21%
Gebenbach57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.21
Gebenbach
2.08

Gebenbach creates 72% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
43%
Eintracht Münchberg or Gebenbach
79%
Draw or Gebenbach
78%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
9%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
70%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
34%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
12%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
87%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
61%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
28%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
22%
level
21%
Gebenbach scores more
57%

Gebenbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
L. Kipry
45+6'
F. Seifert
58'
J. Huttemann
71'
D. Vidovic
90+3'
E. Er
90+3'
E. Er
90+3'
T. FrankPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Eintracht Münchberg 3–2 Gebenbach

Eintracht Münchberg beat Gebenbach 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Kipry (11'), F. Seifert (45+6'), J. Huttemann (58'), D. Vidovic (71'), T. Frank (90+3' pen).

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.