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Gebenbach vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
3/10/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Sportgelände Gebenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gebenbach48%
×Draw22%
ATSV Erlangen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.89
ATSV Erlangen
1.42

Gebenbach creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
71%
Gebenbach or ATSV Erlangen
78%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
52%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
27%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
85%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
56%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
29%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
76%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
41%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
63%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.89

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gebenbach scores more
48%
level
22%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
29%

Gebenbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gebenbach vs ATSV Erlangen

Gebenbach beat ATSV Erlangen 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 10, 2026.

The match was played at Sportgelände Gebenbach in Gebenbach.