ATSV Erlangen 1–1 Gebenbach: Result & Stats

ATSV Erlangen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gebenbach

11/15/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

ATSV Erlangen39%

×Draw23%

Gebenbach38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATSV ErlangenExpected goals in this matchGebenbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.68

ATSV Erlangen

1.70

Gebenbach

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.78

creates per match

1.99

1.37

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen

1.78

Gebenbach

1.99

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen

1.37

Gebenbach

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Gebenbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw

62%

ATSV Erlangen or Gebenbach

77%

Draw or Gebenbach

61%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

20%

Gebenbach wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

82%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

51%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

24%

Gebenbach 1+ goals

81%

Gebenbach 2+ goals

50%

Gebenbach 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

51%

Gebenbach (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more

39%

level

23%

Gebenbach scores more

38%

ATSV Erlangen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff