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Gebenbach vs Abtswind — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 0
Abtswind
Abtswind
L. Reiss 53', 40'
F. Lieder 49'
N. Becker 24'
A. Dussler 82', 77'
J. Golla 72' (OG)
A. Cosar 67'
F. Schmitt 65'
5/11/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 37Sportgelände Gebenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Gebenbach39%
×Draw23%
Abtswind38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.68
Abtswind
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Abtswind
1.62

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Abtswind
1.27

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Abtswind+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Abtswind →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
62%
Gebenbach or Abtswind
77%
Draw or Abtswind
61%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
20%
Abtswind wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
81%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
50%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
24%
Abtswind 1+ goals
81%
Abtswind 2+ goals
49%
Abtswind 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
51%
Abtswind (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Abtswind away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Abtswind defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.68

Abtswind attack 1.62 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gebenbach scores more
39%
level
23%
Abtswind scores more
38%

Gebenbach at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
N. Becker
40'
L. Reiss
49'
F. Lieder
53'
L. Reiss
65'
F. Schmitt
67'
A. Cosar
72'
J. GollaOwn goal
77'
A. Dussler
82'
A. Dussler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Gebenbach 4–5 Abtswind

Abtswind beat Gebenbach 5-4 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 11, 2024.

Goals: N. Becker (24'), L. Reiss (40', 53'), F. Lieder (49'), F. Schmitt (65'), A. Cosar (67'), J. Golla (72' o.g.), A. Dussler (77', 82').

The match was played at Sportgelände Gebenbach in Gebenbach.