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Abtswind vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Abtswind
Abtswind
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
T. Hummer 81'
T. Bretorius 45+1'
A. Cosar 16'
M. Geier 72'
F. Lieder 53'
10/21/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 18Kräuter Mix Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Abtswind38%
×Draw23%
Gebenbach39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abtswind
1.66
Gebenbach
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Abtswind
1.73
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Abtswind
1.37
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

Abtswind+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abtswind ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Abtswind or draw
61%
Abtswind or Gebenbach
77%
Draw or Gebenbach
62%

Winning margin

Abtswind wins by 2+
19%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Abtswind 1+ goals
81%
Abtswind 2+ goals
49%
Abtswind 3+ goals
23%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
81%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
50%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Abtswind (draw refunded)
49%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abtswind at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abtswind attack 1.73 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Abtswind defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Abtswind scores more
38%
level
23%
Gebenbach scores more
39%

Gebenbach at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Cosar
45+1'
T. Bretorius
53'
F. Lieder
72'
M. Geier
81'
T. Hummer
90+4'
T. Ceraj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Abtswind 3–2 Gebenbach

Abtswind beat Gebenbach 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 21, 2023.

Goals: A. Cosar (16'), T. Bretorius (45+1'), F. Lieder (53'), M. Geier (72'), T. Hummer (81').

The match was played at Kräuter Mix Arena in Abtswind.