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GE Osasco U20 vs Clube Vital U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

GE Osasco U20
GE Osasco U20
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Clube Vital U20
Clube Vital U20
R. de Jesus 71'
L. Costa 57', 47'
P. de Souza 39'
F. Cavalcante 56'
L. dos Santos 27'
4/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GE Osasco U2050%
×Draw18%
Clube Vital U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GE Osasco U20
3.20
Clube Vital U20
2.60

GE Osasco U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

GE Osasco U20
2.60
Clube Vital U20
1.00

allows per match

GE Osasco U20
4.20
Clube Vital U20
3.80

finishing

GE Osasco U20+0.00on par
Clube Vital U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 92Under: 892%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 88No: 1288%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GE Osasco U20 ↓

Clube Vital U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
82%18%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

GE Osasco U20 or draw
68%
GE Osasco U20 or Clube Vital U20
82%
Draw or Clube Vital U20
50%

Winning margin

GE Osasco U20 wins by 2+
32%
Clube Vital U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

GE Osasco U20 1+ goals
96%
GE Osasco U20 2+ goals
82%
GE Osasco U20 3+ goals
60%
Clube Vital U20 1+ goals
92%
Clube Vital U20 2+ goals
73%
Clube Vital U20 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

GE Osasco U20 (draw refunded)
61%
Clube Vital U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GE Osasco U20 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Clube Vital U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GE Osasco U20 attack 2.60 + Clube Vital U20 defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.20

Clube Vital U20 attack 1.00 + GE Osasco U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GE Osasco U20 scores more
50%
level
18%
Clube Vital U20 scores more
32%

GE Osasco U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "GE Osasco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
L. dos Santos
39'
P. de Souza
47'
L. Costa
56'
F. Cavalcante
57'
L. Costa
71'
R. de Jesus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GE Osasco U20 4 – 2 Clube Vital U20

GE Osasco U20 beat Clube Vital U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 19, 2024.

Goals: L. dos Santos (27'), P. de Souza (39'), L. Costa (47', 57'), F. Cavalcante (56'), R. de Jesus (71').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.