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Gaziantep FK vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
Talisca 88', 81'
Y. En Nesyri 21', 5'
10/27/2025League #203League #203 · Round 10Kalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Gaziantep FK22%
×Draw24%
Fenerbahçe54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
1.00
Fenerbahçe
1.71

Fenerbahçe creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
0.85
Fenerbahçe
1.67

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
1.74
Fenerbahçe
1.15

finishing

Gaziantep FK-0.18scores less
Fenerbahçe-0.07on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
46%
Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahçe
76%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
78%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
8%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
63%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
26%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
8%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
82%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
51%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
29%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.74 · 6 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 0.85 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.00

Fenerbahçe attack 1.67 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
22%
level
24%
Fenerbahçe scores more
54%

Fenerbahçe at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94
TaliscaFenerbahçeFenerbahçe · M
9.3

Match Events

5'
Y. En Nesyri
6'
Archie Brown
21'
Y. En Nesyri↳ M. Asensio
25'
Edson Álvarez
43'
Milan Škriniar
46'
D. Sorescu← L. Perez
47'
İsmail Yüksek
55'
Fred← E. Alvarez
55'
O. Aydin← K. Akturkoglu
61'
L. Mercan← A. Brown
61'
S. Szymanski← M. Asensio
67'
Y. Kabadayi← C. Lungoyi
72'
Deian Sorescu
72'
Jayden Oosterwolde
77'
S. Guler← A. Kizildag
77'
E. Boateng← K. Kozlowski
78'
Talisca← Y. En Nesyri
81'
Talisca
82'
B. Ndiaye← M. Kabasakal
85'
Myenty AbenaCard upgrade
86'
Myenty Abena
87'
Kévin Rodrigues
88'
Talisca↳ N. Semedo

Possession

59%Gaziantep

Shots

8Gaziantep

Pass accuracy

52%Gaziantep

Statistics

GaziantepFenerbahçe
Overview
59%Possession41%
8Total Shots20
0.57Expected Goals (xG)2.50
6Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots20
5On Target13
2Off Target5
1Blocked2
3Inside Box14
5Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
425Total Passes293
347Accurate Passes224
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
8Saves5
0.39Goals Prevented0.39
Discipline
12Fouls15
2Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

League #203: Gaziantep FK 0–4 Fenerbahçe

Fenerbahçe beat Gaziantep FK 4-0 in League #203 on October 27, 2025.

Goals: Y. En Nesyri (5', 21'), Talisca (81', 88').

Gaziantep FK controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 20.

The match was played at Kalyon Stadyumu in Gaziantep.