Gaziantep FK 1–3 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fenerbahçe

A. Maxim 13'

Fred 72'

E. Džeko 69'

Talisca 68' (pen)

4/26/2025

League #203 · Round 33Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Gaziantep FK18%

×Draw22%

Fenerbahçe59%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.85

Gaziantep FK

0.92

Fenerbahçe

1.85

Fenerbahçe creates 101% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.80

creates per match

1.83

1.86

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

0.80

Fenerbahçe

1.83

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

1.86

Fenerbahçe

1.04

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK-0.09on par

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

41%

Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahçe

78%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

82%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

6%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

60%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

23%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

7%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

84%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

55%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

24%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.04 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 0.80 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Fenerbahçe attack 1.83 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

18%

level

22%

Fenerbahçe scores more

59%

Fenerbahçe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Fred

Fenerbahçe · M

7.6

Match Events

4'

10'

13'

15'

20'

40'

46'

Y. En-Nesyri← İ. Yüksek

57'

Youssef En-NesyriGoal cancelled

62'

A. Kızıldağ← A. Husic

66'

Bruno Viana

66'

Youssef En-NesyriPenalty confirmed

67'

S. Szymański← İ. Kahveci

67'

D. Tadić← F. Kostić

68'

TaliscaPenalty

69'

E. Džeko↳ D. Tadić

72'

Fred

73'

E. Taşdemir← Bruno Viana

73'

K. Kodro← H. Dervişoğlu

73'

Q. Daubin← O. Özçiçek

80'

L. Mercan← E. Džeko

84'

F. Soyalp← B. Ndiaye

84'

C. Tosun← Talisca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaziantepFenerbahçe

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots13

0.49Expected Goals (xG)2.62

1Corners8

19Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots13

5On Target7

2Off Target2

1Blocked4

2Inside Box12

6Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

316Total Passes468

251Accurate Passes392

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

19Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2