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Gaziantep FK vs Elazığspor — 1. Lig 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elazığspor
Elazığspor
3/8/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 25Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gaziantep FK57%
×Draw23%
Elazığspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
1.84
Elazığspor
0.98

Gaziantep FK creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
1.56
Elazığspor
1.12

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.83
Elazığspor
2.12

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Elazığspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Elazığspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
80%
Gaziantep FK or Elazığspor
77%
Draw or Elazığspor
43%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
33%
Elazığspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
84%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
55%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
28%
Elazığspor 1+ goals
62%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
26%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
74%
Elazığspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Elazığspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.56 + Elazığspor defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.84

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
57%
level
23%
Elazığspor scores more
20%

Gaziantep FK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Elazığspor

Gaziantep FK beat Elazığspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on March 8, 2019.

The match was played at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Gaziantep.