Elazığspor 0–5 Gaziantep FK: Result & Stats

Elazığspor

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Gaziantep FK

10/7/2018

1. Lig · Round 8Elaziğ Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elazığspor21%

×Draw23%

Gaziantep FK56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElazığsporExpected goals in this matchGaziantep FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.82

Elazığspor

1.03

Gaziantep FK

1.82

Gaziantep FK creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.12

creates per match

2.00

1.65

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Elazığspor

1.12

Gaziantep FK

2.00

allows per match

Elazığspor

1.65

Gaziantep FK

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw

44%

Elazığspor or Gaziantep FK

77%

Draw or Gaziantep FK

79%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+

8%

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals

64%

Elazığspor 2+ goals

28%

Elazığspor 3+ goals

9%

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

84%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

54%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)

28%

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Elazığspor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Elazığspor scores more

21%

level

23%

Gaziantep FK scores more

56%

Gaziantep FK at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff