Gaziantep FK 1–0 Afjet Afyonspor: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Afjet Afyonspor

4/3/2019

1. Lig · Round 27Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gaziantep FK50%

×Draw26%

Afjet Afyonspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchAfjet Afyonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.98

Gaziantep FK

1.52

Afjet Afyonspor

0.98

Gaziantep FK creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

1.56

creates per match

1.12

0.83

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

1.56

Afjet Afyonspor

1.12

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

0.83

Afjet Afyonspor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

76%

Gaziantep FK or Afjet Afyonspor

74%

Draw or Afjet Afyonspor

50%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

25%

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

78%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

45%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

20%

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals

62%

Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals

26%

Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

67%

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.56 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

50%

level

26%

Afjet Afyonspor scores more

24%

Gaziantep FK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff