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Afjet Afyonspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
10/26/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 10Zafer Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afjet Afyonspor20%
×Draw22%
Gaziantep FK57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afjet Afyonspor
1.03
Gaziantep FK
1.88

Gaziantep FK creates 83% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Afjet Afyonspor
1.12
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Afjet Afyonspor
1.76
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afjet Afyonspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Afjet Afyonspor or draw
43%
Afjet Afyonspor or Gaziantep FK
78%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
80%

Winning margin

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
7%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
64%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
28%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
9%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
85%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
56%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
26%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afjet Afyonspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Afjet Afyonspor scores more
20%
level
22%
Gaziantep FK scores more
57%

Gaziantep FK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afjet Afyonspor vs Gaziantep FK

Gaziantep FK beat Afjet Afyonspor 4-1 in 1. Lig on October 26, 2018.

The match was played at Zafer Stadı in Afyonkarahisar.