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Gaziantep FK vs Adanaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Adanaspor
Adanaspor
4/14/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 29Gaziantep Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gaziantep FK55%
×Draw25%
Adanaspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
1.59
Adanaspor
0.86

Gaziantep FK creates 85% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 117 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
1.56
Adanaspor
0.89

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.83
Adanaspor
1.62

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Adanaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
80%
Gaziantep FK or Adanaspor
75%
Draw or Adanaspor
45%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
29%
Adanaspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
80%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
47%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
21%
Adanaspor 1+ goals
58%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
21%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
73%
Adanaspor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.56 + Adanaspor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.59

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
55%
level
25%
Adanaspor scores more
20%

Gaziantep FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gaziantep FK vs Adanaspor

Gaziantep FK beat Adanaspor 4-1 in 1. Lig on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Gaziantep Stadyumu in Gaziantep.