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Adanaspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Adanaspor
Adanaspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
11/9/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 125 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adanaspor24%
×Draw24%
Gaziantep FK52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adanaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.73

Gaziantep FK creates 59% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adanaspor
1.25
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Adanaspor
1.47
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw
48%
Adanaspor or Gaziantep FK
76%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
76%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+
9%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals
66%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
30%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
10%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
82%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
52%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)
31%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Adanaspor scores more
24%
level
24%
Gaziantep FK scores more
52%

Gaziantep FK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adanaspor vs Gaziantep FK

Adanaspor and Gaziantep FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on November 9, 2018.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.