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Gazelle vs Aigle Royal — Elite One 2019

Gazelle
Gazelle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
3/17/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 10Stade Annexe Roumde Adjia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gazelle46%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gazelle
1.33
Aigle Royal
0.92

Gazelle creates 45% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 38 away

creates per match

Gazelle
1.24
Aigle Royal
0.87

allows per match

Gazelle
0.96
Aigle Royal
1.42

finishing

Gazelle+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gazelle ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gazelle or draw
74%
Gazelle or Aigle Royal
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal
54%

Winning margin

Gazelle wins by 2+
22%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gazelle 1+ goals
74%
Gazelle 2+ goals
38%
Gazelle 3+ goals
15%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
60%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
23%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gazelle (draw refunded)
64%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gazelle at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.96 · 50 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gazelle attack 1.24 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Gazelle defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gazelle scores more
46%
level
28%
Aigle Royal scores more
26%

Gazelle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gazelle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gazelle vs Aigle Royal

Gazelle beat Aigle Royal 2-1 in Elite One on March 17, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Annexe Roumde Adjia.