Aigle Royal 1–0 Gazelle: Result & Stats | Elite One

Aigle Royal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gazelle

M. Yamdjeu 8'

6/7/2026

Elite One · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Aigle Royal39%

×Draw28%

Gazelle33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle RoyalExpected goals in this matchGazelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.08

Aigle Royal

1.21

Gazelle

1.08

Aigle Royal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 52 away

1.30

creates per match

1.21

0.95

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Aigle Royal

1.30

Gazelle

1.21

allows per match

Aigle Royal

0.95

Gazelle

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Gazelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Gazelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw

67%

Aigle Royal or Gazelle

72%

Draw or Gazelle

61%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

17%

Gazelle wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

70%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

34%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

12%

Gazelle 1+ goals

66%

Gazelle 2+ goals

29%

Gazelle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

54%

Gazelle (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Gazelle away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.30 + Gazelle defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gazelle attack 1.21 + Aigle Royal defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aigle Royal scores more

39%

level

28%

Gazelle scores more

33%

Aigle Royal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Yamdjeu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff