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GAZ Metan Medias vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

GAZ Metan Medias
GAZ Metan Medias
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
7/17/2020Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 8Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias37%
×Draw28%
FC Astra Giurgiu36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GAZ Metan Medias
1.19
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 54 away

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias
1.23
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias
1.21
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw
64%
GAZ Metan Medias or FC Astra Giurgiu
72%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
63%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+
15%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals
70%
GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals
33%
GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals
12%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
69%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
33%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)
51%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more
37%
level
28%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
36%

GAZ Metan Medias at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "GAZ Metan Medias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: GAZ Metan Medias 0–4 FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat GAZ Metan Medias 4-0 in Liga I on July 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan in Mediaş.