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FC Astra Giurgiu vs GAZ Metan Medias — Liga I 2018

FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
GAZ Metan Medias
GAZ Metan Medias
6/15/2020Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 3Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FC Astra Giurgiu47%
×Draw26%
GAZ Metan Medias27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.48
GAZ Metan Medias
1.07

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 76 away

creates per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.36
GAZ Metan Medias
0.89

allows per match

FC Astra Giurgiu
1.25
GAZ Metan Medias
1.59

finishing

FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par
GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astra Giurgiu ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Astra Giurgiu or draw
73%
FC Astra Giurgiu or GAZ Metan Medias
74%
Draw or GAZ Metan Medias
53%

Winning margin

FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
23%
GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
77%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
43%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
19%
GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals
66%
GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals
29%
GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
63%
GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astra Giurgiu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.36 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
47%
level
26%
GAZ Metan Medias scores more
27%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Astra Giurgiu 0–0 GAZ Metan Medias

FC Astra Giurgiu and GAZ Metan Medias drew 0-0 in Liga I on June 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.