GAZ Metan Medias 1–1 Farul Constanta

GAZ Metan Medias

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Farul Constanta

11/29/2021

Liga I · Round 17Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias39%

×Draw27%

Farul Constanta34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAZ Metan MediasExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

GAZ Metan Medias

1.27

Farul Constanta

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 99 away

1.23

creates per match

1.12

1.21

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.23

Farul Constanta

1.12

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.21

Farul Constanta

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw

66%

GAZ Metan Medias or Farul Constanta

73%

Draw or Farul Constanta

61%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

17%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

72%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

36%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

14%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

69%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

33%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

53%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + Farul Constanta defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Farul Constanta attack 1.12 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

39%

level

27%

Farul Constanta scores more

34%

GAZ Metan Medias at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GAZ Metan Medias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff