Farul Constanta 2–0 GAZ Metan Medias

Farul Constanta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

7/25/2021

Liga I · Round 2Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Farul Constanta52%

×Draw25%

GAZ Metan Medias23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul ConstantaExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.97

Farul Constanta

1.59

GAZ Metan Medias

0.97

Farul Constanta creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 76 away

1.59

creates per match

0.89

1.04

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Farul Constanta

1.59

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

Farul Constanta

1.04

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw

77%

Farul Constanta or GAZ Metan Medias

75%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

48%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

27%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

80%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

47%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

21%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

62%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

25%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

69%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.59

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Farul Constanta scores more

52%

level

25%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

23%

Farul Constanta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff