GAZ Metan Medias 0–2 CS Universitatea Craiova

GAZ Metan Medias

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

CS Universitatea Craiova

3/12/2021

Liga I · Round 27Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias34%

×Draw27%

CS Universitatea Craiova39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAZ Metan MediasExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.29

GAZ Metan Medias

1.18

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 155 away

1.23

creates per match

1.38

1.21

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.23

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.21

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw

61%

GAZ Metan Medias or CS Universitatea Craiova

73%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

66%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

14%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

69%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

33%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

12%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

72%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

37%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

46%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

34%

level

27%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

39%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff