CS Universitatea Craiova 1–0 GAZ Metan Medias

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

8/21/2021

Liga I · Round 6Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova55%

×Draw25%

GAZ Metan Medias20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.85

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.61

GAZ Metan Medias

0.85

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 89% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 76 away

1.63

creates per match

0.89

0.81

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.63

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

0.81

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

80%

CS Universitatea Craiova or GAZ Metan Medias

75%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

45%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

30%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

80%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

48%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

22%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

57%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

21%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

74%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

55%

level

25%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

20%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff