GAZ Metan Medias 2–0 Arges Pitesti: Result & Stats

GAZ Metan Medias

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arges Pitesti

8/28/2020

Liga I · Round 2Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias42%

×Draw28%

Arges Pitesti30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAZ Metan MediasExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.03

GAZ Metan Medias

1.27

Arges Pitesti

1.03

GAZ Metan Medias creates 23% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 80 away

1.23

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.23

Arges Pitesti

0.86

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.21

Arges Pitesti

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw

70%

GAZ Metan Medias or Arges Pitesti

72%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

58%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

19%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

72%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

36%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

14%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

64%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

28%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

58%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arges Pitesti attack 0.86 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

42%

level

28%

Arges Pitesti scores more

30%

GAZ Metan Medias at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "GAZ Metan Medias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff