Arges Pitesti 1–1 GAZ Metan Medias: Result & Stats

Arges Pitesti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

GAZ Metan Medias

A. Maes 8'

I. Șerban 64' (OG)

1/17/2021

Liga I · Round 17Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arges Pitesti44%

×Draw28%

GAZ Metan Medias28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Arges Pitesti

1.32

GAZ Metan Medias

1.00

Arges Pitesti creates 32% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 76 away

1.05

creates per match

0.89

1.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.05

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

1.11

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

72%

Arges Pitesti or GAZ Metan Medias

72%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

56%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

20%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

73%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

38%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

15%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

63%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

26%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

61%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.05 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

44%

level

28%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

28%

Arges Pitesti at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Maes↳ C. Tofan

12'

Zé Manuel← S. Ciocan

46'

P. Costea← L. Nițu

46'

B. Alceus← Y. Pambou

64'

I. ȘerbanOwn goal

73'

I. Năstăsie← A. Maes

73'

A. Palić← M. Ndiaye

73'

N. Chamed← Ricardo Valente

78'

Yuri Matias

85'

Sylvain Deslandes

88'

Idrisa Sambú← R. Deaconu

90'

Cristian Dumitru

Shots

Statistics

ArgesGAZ

Overview

6Total Shots2

2Corners3

7Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots2

3On Target2

3Off Target0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3