Gaúcho 0–1 Brusque: Result & Stats | Serie D

Gaúcho

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brusque

5/26/2019

Serie D · Round 4Estádio Wolmar Salton (Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gaúcho31%

×Draw34%

Brusque35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaúchoExpected goals in this matchBrusque

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.89

Gaúcho

0.83

Brusque

0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.67

creates per match

1.10

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Gaúcho

0.67

Brusque

1.10

allows per match

Gaúcho

0.67

Brusque

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaúcho+0.00on par

Brusque+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaúcho ↓

Brusque →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Gaúcho or draw

65%

Gaúcho or Brusque

66%

Draw or Brusque

69%

Winning margin

Gaúcho wins by 2+

10%

Brusque wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gaúcho 1+ goals

56%

Gaúcho 2+ goals

20%

Gaúcho 3+ goals

5%

Brusque 1+ goals

59%

Brusque 2+ goals

22%

Brusque 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gaúcho (draw refunded)

47%

Brusque (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaúcho at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Brusque away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaúcho attack 0.67 + Brusque defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Brusque attack 1.10 + Gaúcho defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Gaúcho scores more

31%

level

34%

Brusque scores more

35%

Brusque at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff