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Brusque vs Gaúcho — Serie D 2018

Brusque
Brusque
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Gaúcho
Gaúcho
5/20/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brusque68%
×Draw19%
Gaúcho13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brusque
2.18
Gaúcho
0.82

Brusque creates 166% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brusque
2.36
Gaúcho
1.00

allows per match

Brusque
0.64
Gaúcho
2.00

finishing

Brusque+0.00on par
Gaúcho+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brusque ↓

Gaúcho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brusque or draw
87%
Brusque or Gaúcho
81%
Draw or Gaúcho
32%

Winning margin

Brusque wins by 2+
44%
Gaúcho wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brusque 1+ goals
89%
Brusque 2+ goals
64%
Brusque 3+ goals
37%
Gaúcho 1+ goals
56%
Gaúcho 2+ goals
20%
Gaúcho 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Brusque (draw refunded)
84%
Gaúcho (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brusque at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Gaúcho away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brusque attack 2.36 + Gaúcho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.18

Gaúcho attack 1.00 + Brusque defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Brusque scores more
68%
level
19%
Gaúcho scores more
13%

Brusque at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Brusque will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Brusque 3–2 Gaúcho

Brusque beat Gaúcho 3-2 in Serie D on May 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Augusto Bauer (Brusque, Santa Catarina).