Gasogi United 3–0 Espoir: Result & Stats

Gasogi United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Espoir

5/27/2023

National Soccer League · Round 30Kigali Pelé Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Gasogi United52%

×Draw27%

Espoir22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gasogi UnitedExpected goals in this matchEspoir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

Gasogi United

1.47

Espoir

0.85

Gasogi United creates 73% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 50 away

1.16

creates per match

0.70

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Gasogi United

1.16

Espoir

0.70

allows per match

Gasogi United

1.00

Espoir

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gasogi United+0.00on par

Espoir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gasogi United ↓

Espoir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gasogi United or draw

78%

Gasogi United or Espoir

73%

Draw or Espoir

48%

Winning margin

Gasogi United wins by 2+

26%

Espoir wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gasogi United 1+ goals

77%

Gasogi United 2+ goals

43%

Gasogi United 3+ goals

18%

Espoir 1+ goals

57%

Espoir 2+ goals

21%

Espoir 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gasogi United (draw refunded)

70%

Espoir (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gasogi United at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

Espoir away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gasogi United attack 1.16 + Espoir defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.47

Espoir attack 0.70 + Gasogi United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gasogi United scores more

52%

level

27%

Espoir scores more

22%

Gasogi United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff