Espoir 1–0 Gasogi United: Result & Stats

Espoir

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gasogi United

3/20/2022

National Soccer League · Round 22Cyangugu Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Espoir35%

×Draw30%

Gasogi United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspoirExpected goals in this matchGasogi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.02

Espoir

1.04

Gasogi United

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 97 away

0.88

creates per match

0.93

1.10

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Espoir

0.88

Gasogi United

0.93

allows per match

Espoir

1.10

Gasogi United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espoir+0.00on par

Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espoir ↓

Gasogi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Espoir or draw

66%

Espoir or Gasogi United

70%

Draw or Gasogi United

65%

Winning margin

Espoir wins by 2+

14%

Gasogi United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Espoir 1+ goals

65%

Espoir 2+ goals

28%

Espoir 3+ goals

9%

Gasogi United 1+ goals

64%

Gasogi United 2+ goals

27%

Gasogi United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Espoir (draw refunded)

51%

Gasogi United (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espoir at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espoir attack 0.88 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + Espoir defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Espoir scores more

35%

level

30%

Gasogi United scores more

34%

Espoir at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Espoir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff