Garliava 2–4 FA Šiauliai II: Result & Stats

Garliava

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

FA Šiauliai II

8/2/2024

1 Lyga · Round 17Garliavos Adomo Mitkaus mokyklos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Garliava49%

×Draw23%

FA Šiauliai II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarliavaExpected goals in this matchFA Šiauliai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.35

Garliava

1.85

FA Šiauliai II

1.35

Garliava creates 37% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

1.45

1.25

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Garliava

1.26

FA Šiauliai II

1.45

allows per match

Garliava

1.25

FA Šiauliai II

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garliava+0.00on par

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garliava ↓

FA Šiauliai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Garliava or draw

72%

Garliava or FA Šiauliai II

77%

Draw or FA Šiauliai II

51%

Winning margin

Garliava wins by 2+

27%

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Garliava 1+ goals

84%

Garliava 2+ goals

55%

Garliava 3+ goals

28%

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals

74%

FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals

39%

FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Garliava (draw refunded)

64%

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garliava at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

FA Šiauliai II away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garliava attack 1.26 + FA Šiauliai II defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.85

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.45 + Garliava defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Garliava scores more

49%

level

23%

FA Šiauliai II scores more

28%

Garliava at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff