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FA Šiauliai II vs Garliava — 1 Lyga 2026

FA Šiauliai II
FA Šiauliai II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garliava
Garliava
3/9/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 1Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FA Šiauliai II37%
×Draw24%
Garliava39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Šiauliai II
1.51
Garliava
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

FA Šiauliai II
1.38
Garliava
1.12

allows per match

FA Šiauliai II
1.96
Garliava
1.65

finishing

FA Šiauliai II+0.00on par
Garliava+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Šiauliai II ↓

Garliava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FA Šiauliai II or draw
61%
FA Šiauliai II or Garliava
76%
Draw or Garliava
63%

Winning margin

FA Šiauliai II wins by 2+
18%
Garliava wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FA Šiauliai II 1+ goals
78%
FA Šiauliai II 2+ goals
44%
FA Šiauliai II 3+ goals
19%
Garliava 1+ goals
79%
Garliava 2+ goals
45%
Garliava 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FA Šiauliai II (draw refunded)
49%
Garliava (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Šiauliai II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.96 · 68 matches

Garliava away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Šiauliai II attack 1.38 + Garliava defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Garliava attack 1.12 + FA Šiauliai II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FA Šiauliai II scores more
37%
level
24%
Garliava scores more
39%

Garliava at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Garliava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: FA Šiauliai II 0–0 Garliava

FA Šiauliai II and Garliava drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Šiaulių Gytarių stadionas in Šiauliai.