Gardnersville 1–5 BEA Mountain: Result & Stats

Gardnersville

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

BEA Mountain

3/26/2026

LFA First Division · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gardnersville35%

×Draw22%

BEA Mountain43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GardnersvilleExpected goals in this matchBEA Mountain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.88

Gardnersville

1.67

BEA Mountain

1.88

BEA Mountain creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 74 away

2.23

creates per match

1.84

1.92

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Gardnersville

2.23

BEA Mountain

1.84

allows per match

Gardnersville

1.92

BEA Mountain

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gardnersville+0.00on par

BEA Mountain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gardnersville ↓

BEA Mountain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Gardnersville or draw

57%

Gardnersville or BEA Mountain

78%

Draw or BEA Mountain

65%

Winning margin

Gardnersville wins by 2+

17%

BEA Mountain wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gardnersville 1+ goals

81%

Gardnersville 2+ goals

50%

Gardnersville 3+ goals

23%

BEA Mountain 1+ goals

85%

BEA Mountain 2+ goals

56%

BEA Mountain 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Gardnersville (draw refunded)

45%

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gardnersville at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

BEA Mountain away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.11 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gardnersville attack 2.23 + BEA Mountain defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.67

BEA Mountain attack 1.84 + Gardnersville defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gardnersville scores more

35%

level

22%

BEA Mountain scores more

43%

BEA Mountain at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff