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BEA Mountain vs Gardnersville — LFA First Division 2020

BEA Mountain
BEA Mountain
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gardnersville
Gardnersville
11/2/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BEA Mountain56%
×Draw23%
Gardnersville21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BEA Mountain
1.83
Gardnersville
1.01

BEA Mountain creates 81% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 15 away

creates per match

BEA Mountain
1.74
Gardnersville
1.13

allows per match

BEA Mountain
0.89
Gardnersville
1.93

finishing

BEA Mountain+0.00on par
Gardnersville+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BEA Mountain ↓

Gardnersville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

BEA Mountain or draw
79%
BEA Mountain or Gardnersville
77%
Draw or Gardnersville
44%

Winning margin

BEA Mountain wins by 2+
32%
Gardnersville wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

BEA Mountain 1+ goals
84%
BEA Mountain 2+ goals
54%
BEA Mountain 3+ goals
28%
Gardnersville 1+ goals
64%
Gardnersville 2+ goals
27%
Gardnersville 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BEA Mountain (draw refunded)
73%
Gardnersville (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BEA Mountain at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

Gardnersville away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BEA Mountain attack 1.74 + Gardnersville defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Gardnersville attack 1.13 + BEA Mountain defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

BEA Mountain scores more
56%
level
23%
Gardnersville scores more
21%

BEA Mountain at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "BEA Mountain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BEA Mountain vs Gardnersville

BEA Mountain and Gardnersville drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on November 2, 2025.