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Garching vs 1860 Rosenheim — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Garching
Garching
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
1860 Rosenheim
1860 Rosenheim
7/31/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 4Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garching40%
×Draw24%
1860 Rosenheim37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.59
1860 Rosenheim
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Garching
0.94
1860 Rosenheim
1.06

allows per match

Garching
1.97
1860 Rosenheim
2.24

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

1860 Rosenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Garching or draw
63%
Garching or 1860 Rosenheim
76%
Draw or 1860 Rosenheim
60%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
20%
1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
80%
Garching 2+ goals
47%
Garching 3+ goals
21%
1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals
78%
1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals
45%
1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
52%
1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

1860 Rosenheim away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.94 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.59

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.06 + Garching defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Garching scores more
40%
level
24%
1860 Rosenheim scores more
37%

Garching at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Garching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garching vs 1860 Rosenheim

Garching beat 1860 Rosenheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.