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1860 Rosenheim vs Garching — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

1860 Rosenheim
1860 Rosenheim
FT
1 – 1
Garching
Garching
11/26/2022Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 21Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

1860 Rosenheim34%
×Draw22%
Garching44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 Rosenheim
1.67
Garching
1.92

Garching creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

1860 Rosenheim
1.12
Garching
1.18

allows per match

1860 Rosenheim
2.65
Garching
2.21

finishing

1860 Rosenheim+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 Rosenheim ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1860 Rosenheim or draw
56%
1860 Rosenheim or Garching
78%
Draw or Garching
66%

Winning margin

1860 Rosenheim wins by 2+
17%
Garching wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

1860 Rosenheim 1+ goals
81%
1860 Rosenheim 2+ goals
50%
1860 Rosenheim 3+ goals
23%
Garching 1+ goals
85%
Garching 2+ goals
57%
Garching 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

1860 Rosenheim (draw refunded)
44%
Garching (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 Rosenheim at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Garching away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 Rosenheim attack 1.12 + Garching defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Garching attack 1.18 + 1860 Rosenheim defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

1860 Rosenheim scores more
34%
level
22%
Garching scores more
44%

Garching at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Garching will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 Rosenheim vs Garching

1860 Rosenheim and Garching drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Rosenheim.