Garbarnia Kraków 0–0 Elana Toruń: Result & Stats

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Elana Toruń

9/7/2019

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków47%

×Draw25%

Elana Toruń28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchElana Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków

1.58

Elana Toruń

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.42

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.57

Elana Toruń

0.94

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.42

Elana Toruń

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Elana Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

72%

Garbarnia Kraków or Elana Toruń

75%

Draw or Elana Toruń

53%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

24%

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

79%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

47%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

21%

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

69%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

33%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

62%

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Elana Toruń attack 0.94 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

47%

level

25%

Elana Toruń scores more

28%

Garbarnia Kraków at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff