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Elana Toruń vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
6/12/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 25Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń44%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
1.73
Garbarnia Kraków
1.44

Elana Toruń creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
2.00
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.59
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
68%
Elana Toruń or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
56%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
23%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
82%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
52%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
25%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
76%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
42%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
58%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 2.00 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
44%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
32%

Elana Toruń at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Elana Toruń 1–0 Garbarnia Kraków

Elana Toruń beat Garbarnia Kraków 1-0 in II Liga - East on June 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.