Garbarnia Kraków 2–1 Chełmianka Chełm

Garbarnia Kraków

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chełmianka Chełm

10/13/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków37%

×Draw24%

Chełmianka Chełm39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Garbarnia KrakówExpected goals in this matchChełmianka Chełm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.60

Garbarnia Kraków

1.56

Chełmianka Chełm

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

1.71

creates per match

1.73

1.47

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.71

Chełmianka Chełm

1.73

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

Chełmianka Chełm

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw

61%

Garbarnia Kraków or Chełmianka Chełm

76%

Draw or Chełmianka Chełm

63%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

18%

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

79%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

46%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

21%

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals

80%

Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals

47%

Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

49%

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

37%

level

24%

Chełmianka Chełm scores more

39%

Chełmianka Chełm at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff