Chełmianka Chełm 0–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Chełmianka Chełm

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Garbarnia Kraków

5/11/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chełmianka Chełm52%

×Draw23%

Garbarnia Kraków25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chełmianka ChełmExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.23

Chełmianka Chełm

1.85

Garbarnia Kraków

1.23

Chełmianka Chełm creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

1.77

creates per match

1.29

1.18

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.77

Garbarnia Kraków

1.29

allows per match

Chełmianka Chełm

1.18

Garbarnia Kraków

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chełmianka Chełm ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chełmianka Chełm or draw

75%

Chełmianka Chełm or Garbarnia Kraków

77%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

48%

Winning margin

Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+

29%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals

84%

Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals

55%

Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals

28%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

71%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

35%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)

67%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chełmianka Chełm at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.77 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chełmianka Chełm scores more

52%

level

23%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

25%

Chełmianka Chełm at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff