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Gangneung City vs Busan Transportation — K3 League 2026

Gangneung City
Gangneung City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Busan Transportation
Busan Transportation
10/12/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 27Gangneung High1 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Gangneung City37%
×Draw27%
Busan Transportation36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gangneung City
1.29
Busan Transportation
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 107 away

creates per match

Gangneung City
1.36
Busan Transportation
1.33

allows per match

Gangneung City
1.19
Busan Transportation
1.23

finishing

Gangneung City+0.00on par
Busan Transportation+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gangneung City ↓

Busan Transportation →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gangneung City or draw
64%
Gangneung City or Busan Transportation
73%
Draw or Busan Transportation
63%

Winning margin

Gangneung City wins by 2+
17%
Busan Transportation wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gangneung City 1+ goals
72%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
37%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
14%
Busan Transportation 1+ goals
72%
Busan Transportation 2+ goals
36%
Busan Transportation 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Gangneung City (draw refunded)
51%
Busan Transportation (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gangneung City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 108 matches

Busan Transportation away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gangneung City attack 1.36 + Busan Transportation defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Busan Transportation attack 1.33 + Gangneung City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gangneung City scores more
37%
level
27%
Busan Transportation scores more
36%

Gangneung City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gangneung City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gangneung City vs Busan Transportation

Gangneung City beat Busan Transportation 2-1 in K3 League on October 12, 2025.

The match was played at Gangneung High1 Arena in Gangneung.