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Busan Transportation vs Gangneung City — K3 League 2026

Busan Transportation
Busan Transportation
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gangneung City
Gangneung City
6/6/2025K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 12Busan Gudeok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Busan Transportation41%
×Draw28%
Gangneung City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Busan Transportation
1.27
Gangneung City
1.07

Busan Transportation creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Busan Transportation
1.24
Gangneung City
1.07

allows per match

Busan Transportation
1.07
Gangneung City
1.30

finishing

Busan Transportation+0.00on par
Gangneung City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Busan Transportation ↓

Gangneung City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Busan Transportation or draw
69%
Busan Transportation or Gangneung City
72%
Draw or Gangneung City
59%

Winning margin

Busan Transportation wins by 2+
18%
Gangneung City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Busan Transportation 1+ goals
72%
Busan Transportation 2+ goals
36%
Busan Transportation 3+ goals
14%
Gangneung City 1+ goals
66%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
29%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Busan Transportation (draw refunded)
57%
Gangneung City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Busan Transportation at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

Gangneung City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Busan Transportation attack 1.24 + Gangneung City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gangneung City attack 1.07 + Busan Transportation defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Busan Transportation scores more
41%
level
28%
Gangneung City scores more
31%

Busan Transportation at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Busan Transportation will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Busan Transportation 2–0 Gangneung City

Busan Transportation beat Gangneung City 2-0 in K3 League on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at Busan Gudeok Stadium in Busan.