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Gamle Oslo vs Funnefoss / Vormsund — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Funnefoss / Vormsund
Funnefoss / Vormsund
S. Sorlie 90'
E. Jammeh 41'
R. Telle 30'
M. Rismoen 68'
I. Veiby 62' (pen)
S. A. Butt 59'
6/28/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 12Vallhall Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gamle Oslo65%
×Draw16%
Funnefoss / Vormsund19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gamle Oslo
3.02
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.63

Gamle Oslo creates 85% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Gamle Oslo
3.40
Funnefoss / Vormsund
1.60

allows per match

Gamle Oslo
1.65
Funnefoss / Vormsund
2.65

finishing

Gamle Oslo+0.00on par
Funnefoss / Vormsund+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamle Oslo ↓

Funnefoss / Vormsund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Gamle Oslo or draw
81%
Gamle Oslo or Funnefoss / Vormsund
84%
Draw or Funnefoss / Vormsund
35%

Winning margin

Gamle Oslo wins by 2+
45%
Funnefoss / Vormsund wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gamle Oslo 1+ goals
95%
Gamle Oslo 2+ goals
80%
Gamle Oslo 3+ goals
57%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 1+ goals
80%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 2+ goals
48%
Funnefoss / Vormsund 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gamle Oslo (draw refunded)
77%
Funnefoss / Vormsund (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamle Oslo at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Funnefoss / Vormsund away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamle Oslo attack 3.40 + Funnefoss / Vormsund defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 3.02

Funnefoss / Vormsund attack 1.60 + Gamle Oslo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gamle Oslo scores more
65%
level
16%
Funnefoss / Vormsund scores more
19%

Gamle Oslo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gamle Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
R. Telle
41'
E. Jammeh
59'
S. A. Butt
62'
I. VeibyPenalty
68'
M. Rismoen
90'
S. Sorlie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Gamle Oslo 3–3 Funnefoss / Vormsund

Gamle Oslo and Funnefoss / Vormsund drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 28, 2025.

Goals: R. Telle (30'), E. Jammeh (41'), S. A. Butt (59'), I. Veiby (62' pen), M. Rismoen (68'), S. Sorlie (90').

The match was played at Vallhall Arena in Oslo.